Abstract
Background In 2015/16, the annual national expenditure on neurological conditions exceeded AUD3 billion (2.6% of total healthcare expenditure). A comprehensive study of the Australian neurological workforce has not previously been undertaken.
Methods Current neurological workforce was obtained using data from ANZAN (including surveys), the Medical Board of Australia, and other sites. Workforce supply modelling used equations to simulate neurologist influx from training and immigration, and attrition from retirement, emigration, and death. Potential interventions to increase workforce supply were then simulated.
Results In 2021, there were 422 registered neurologists in Australia. The average FTE was 0.769 and, on average, neurologists saw 22.21 (SD=19.36) initial and 39.91 (SD=26.98) review patients per 1.0 FTE (i.e. 329,762 initial and 651,580 review encounters annually). Modelling of the workforce from 2023 to 2034 predicted an increase in neurologists from 422 to 739 (577,475 initial and 1,141,037 review encounters annually). Regional Australia represented approximately 31% of the total population but was served by only 4.1% of the neurology workforce. Neurologist numbers in Regional Australia will increase from 17 to 30 (23,676 initial and 46,783 review encounters). Introduction of 10 or 20 new regional neurologists in 2023 with 5-year placement requirements would result in 31–41 regional neurologists by 2034 (total capacity 24,224–32,039 initial and 47,865–63,305 review encounters), respectively.
Conclusion Modelling of the neurologist workforce in Australia for the period 2023 to 2034 suggests that Regional Australia’s significant shortfall is expected to persist. Interventions aimed at increasing regional neurologist workforce are likely to attenuate this shortfall.
