Discharge destination as a surrogate for Modified Rankin Scale defined outcomes at 3- and 12-months poststroke among stroke survivors

Objective: To determine the predictive value of discharge destination as a surrogate for defining unfavorable outcome at 3- and 12-months poststroke.

Design: Analysis of the prospectively collected data from a randomized, placebo-controlled trial in patients with ischemic stroke presenting within 3 hours of symptom onset.

Setting: Post hoc analysis of patients recruited in a clinical trial.

Participants: Patients (N=530) discharged alive from the hospital after ischemic stroke.

Interventions: Not applicable.

Main outcome measures: Positive and negative predictive value and likelihood ratios of discharge destination for unfavorable outcome at 3- and 12-months poststroke defined by a Modified Rankin Scale (MRS) score of 2 to 6, 3 to 6, or 4 to 6. A likelihood ratio indicates how many times more (or less) likely a particular discharge destination is seen in patients with an unfavorable outcome compared with those without unfavorable outcome.

Results: The positive predictive value of nursing home and rehabilitation facility discharges was highest for unfavorable outcome defined by an MRS score of 2 to 6 (95%) and rehabilitation facility (89%) at 3-months poststroke, respectively. The positive predictive value of rehabilitation facility/nursing home (90%) was also highest for unfavorable outcomes defined by an MRS score of 2 to 6 compared with those defined by MRS scores of 3 to 6 (79%) and 4 to 6 (57%). The positive likelihood ratio was highest for nursing home discharges (13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1-41) followed by rehabilitation facility discharges for unfavorable outcome defined by an MRS score of 2 to 6 at 3-months poststroke (5.3; 95% CI, 3.5-7.9). The negative likelihood ratio was the highest for home discharge for unfavorable outcome defined by an MRS score of 2 to 6 (4.5; 95% CI, 3.4-6.1). A similar pattern was observed with unfavorable outcome defined using various thresholds at 12 months.

Conclusions: Discharge destination can provide high predictive values and likelihood ratios for death and disability at 3-months poststroke, as defined by an MRS of score of 2 to 6.